ZIM INTELLECTUAL LOOKS AT MBEKI'S FOUR OPTIONS!

Mbeki's mediation - four scenarios


'It is Zanu(PF)'s intention to completely destroy the MDC by June this year'

By John Makumbe

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The designation of South Africa's Thabo Mbeki as mediator in the worsening Zimbabwe crisis seems to be generating four possible scenarios that may happen in the next 10 - 12 months.
Scenario One relates to a successful start to the dialogue, with both Zanu(PF) and the MDC participating at first, then civil society being included later in the process. An agreement to write a new democratic constitution will be reached and this will result in a referendum being held prior to the holding of the 2008 parliamentary and presidential elections. Efforts will probably be made to make these elections free and fair to the satisfaction of all parties concerned.
Scenario Two envisages most of the developments pertaining to Scenario One, except that after some time of negotiating with the other parties, Zanu(PF) will then throw a spanner into the whole process, thereby causing a deadlock . Mugabe will quickly push the proposed Constitutional Amendment Number 18 through Parliament. The amendment will obviously pass easily given the fear that Zanu(PF) MPs have of the dictator.
The MDC will immediately announce that it will boycott the 2008 elections and Mbeki's negotiating team will be thrown into disarray. As has happened in the past, Mugabe will go ahead with the elections and claim victory – resulting in worse economic problems.
Under Scenario Three, the best possible development for this country, Mugabe co-operates fully with Mbeki and his negotiating team. An agreement is reached and Mugabe gracefully retires from office several months before the holding of elections under a democratic constitution. A National Transitional Authority (NTA) is set up to oversee the electoral process and run national affairs in the interim.
This authority will comprise representatives of such critical sectors as MDC, Zanu(PF), the churches, business, women's groups, students and professional bodies. Once constituted, the National Transitional Authority can elect two respected and acceptable individuals to be Acting President and Acting Vice President. The NTA will proceed to devise various ways and means of rehabilitating the national economy. The international community will come to Zimbabwe's aid through bilateral and multi-lateral agreements.
Scenario Four is perhaps the most intriguing of these possible scenarios. Desperate to retain power, Mugabe and his Zanu(PF) will cause a deadlock to develop in the dialogue process. This will result in both the MDC and civil society embarking on nationwide civil disobedience with the attendant police brutality perpetrated by the despotic Mugabe regime.
Military elements within Zanu(PF) will then force Mugabe out of office by force and create an interim leadership to oversee the running of elections under the current demented constitution. The SADC will reject the newly "elected" government which will essentially be a Zanu(PF) faction masquerading as a democratic government. Zimbabwe's problems persist as the international community shuns the sham regime.
A few footnotes may be necessary for readers to better appreciate these four scenarios. First, it is Zanu(PF)'s intention to completely destroy the MDC by June this year. In this, the draconian regime will fail, but the violence and brutality will be ratcheted up to unprecedented levels in the history of this country. Second, Mugabe is currently actively recruiting additional Zanu(PF) militia in order to bring the number up to 15 000, while the police force is being increased to more than 45 000.
Both of these forces will assist the notorious CIO to subdue the MDC and civil society, including the churches, to ensure that Mugabe and Zanu(PF) remain in power long after the 2008 elections. We need to pray that Scenario Three be the one that is realised, even thought the chances of this are remote indeed.